Can the Texans win without J.J. Watt?

Houston Texans star defensive end J.J. Watt hurt with back injury
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A few days after getting blown out 27-0 by the New England Patriots in Week 3, Texans fans received even worse news: J.J. Watt re-injured his back and was going to be placed on injured reserve. Watt confirmed the reports with this tweet:

After winning the 2015 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award, we found out that J.J. Watt had played through the whole season with a myriad of excruciating injuries. Watt terrorized opposing quarterbacks for 17.5 sacks while playing with a herniated disc, five fully/partially torn core muscles and a broken hand. He underwent offseason surgery for a sports hernia and his herniated disc, and rehabbed hard to get himself ready for the season opener.

Some, including former Chargers’ linebacker Shawne Merriman, thought Watt should’ve taken a slower road to recovery.

J.J. Watt is the cornerstone of the Texans defense and has definitely played superman for his team through his first 5 seasons. Here are the numbers that prove just how much of an impact he has had for the Texans:

J.J. Watt Career Stats

Sacks 76
QB Hits 213
Total Pressures 420
Passes Defended 45
Tackles 378
Tackles for Loss 133
Fumble Recoveries 13
Interceptions 1
Safety 1
Blocked Kicks 5
Touchdowns 5
*Statistics courtesy of nfl.com/stats

 

Before Watt came into the league, the Texans had never won the AFC South and only once ended a season with a record better than 8-8. In the five seasons since drafting Watt in 2011, the Texans have won the AFC South three times and have had a 9-7 record or better for all but one season. Watt, one of only a handful of active players to score a touchdown on both offense and defense, literally carried the Texans to victory in a lot of games. With three NFL Defensive Player of the Year Awards in five years, Watt’s career is off to an incredible start. In fact, his early career dominance has already put his name up there with some Hall-of-Famers:

According to our voters, the biggest question is: “Can the Texans win without J.J. Watt?” Not far behind are the questions “How is the Texans defense without J.J. Watt?” and “Will J.J. Watt ever be the same?” Let’s answer these questions one by one.

“Can the Texans win without J.J. Watt?”

We had a glimpse of life without J.J. in the Texans’ 27-20 win over the Titans. But the question still looms large with two top-10 offenses (Oakland Raiders [3rd in YPG] and Detroit Lions [9th in YPG]) and talented 2015 playoff teams like the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos still left on the schedule. The Texans may be able to win with a more offensive approach–that is if the offense can be consistent. The potential is there for a dangerous, balanced offense with Lamar Miller in the backfield and DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller on the perimeter. If Brock Osweiler can take advantage of the talent around him and the offensive line can keep him upright, the Texans may be able to put more points on the board than they have in the past. That would definitely take some pressure off of the defense to have to win the game for the team week in, week out.

“How is the Texans defense without J.J. Watt?”

Houston Chronicle’s Texans beat writer Aaron Wilson explained that the Texans defense needs to replace J.J. Watt collectively as a unit and not with an individual because, well, it can’t be done. No single player can match what Watt brings to the table in terms of physicality and production. Wilson goes on to explain how the Texans still have talented players like Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing, Benardrick McKinney and John Simon to make plays. But they will have to step up collectively to absorb the huge blow to their defensive line. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has his work cut out for him, as he will have to scheme some creative ways to create pass rush that would have been there with a standard four-man rush when Watt was on the field.

Although the Texans have much more talented front-seven depth than many teams, I think they will miss J.J. the most in defending the run. That was evident on Sunday when Titans’ running back DeMarco Murray ran for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the week before when LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots put up a combined 185 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing against them. Although Watt played in the Patriots game, he was already feeling like he was without strength.

This defense will still be a top 10 defense (currently 8th in points allowed, 5th in yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 27th vs the run) due to the strength of the secondary and the remaining talent in the front-seven, but there is no doubt that J.J. Watt will be missed.

“Will J.J. Watt ever be the same?”

Our final question is probably the most concerning long-term question. And it is definitely worth asking. Ideally, Watt will benefit from having the rest of this year and the entire offseason to recover, and will come back the same game-wrecking player. But with something as serious as a back injury and torn core muscles, you have to ask whether he can be the same player again. You can’t be sure if rushing back and re-injuring his back again this year will set his career on a quick and steady decline similar to how injuries shortened Shawne Merriman’s career.

But remember, J.J. vowed, “I will be back” in his tweet to fans. While there are so many factors that go into his recovery and healing that nothing is guaranteed, don’t look at that promise lightly. While it is a totally different kind of injury, that is the same kind of resolve to come back stronger that Adrian Peterson expressed after his gruesome knee injury in 2011. Peterson came back the following season to smash through the league for 2,097 yards and remind people not to doubt him. You can bet that Watt will similarly be absolutely determined to put in the work to get back to where he has been for the past five years. If anyone can come back from this kind of injury with the same level of swag and dominant play, it’s J.J. Watt.

Enjoy the 2016 season while you can, quarterbacks, because Watt will be back. And I have a feeling he’ll be back with a vengeance.

(Photo Credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

(Photo Credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

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